The Belmont Stakes is Saturday at 6:37pm EST, and with both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners out of the field, we are assured a third straight different winner in a 2017 Triple Crown race. The early favorite, Classic Empire, will not be running, removing yet another favorite from the field and shaking up the odds dramatically from just a week ago.
Here's a current look at the Belmont Odds as of June 9th – and keep in mind, that unlike the rest of the sports we cover at The Sports Geek, the odds in horse racing are VERY fluid and subject to frequent and dramatic change.
— Saturday afternoon will mark the final race for this year's Triple Crown. Belmont predictions, belmont stakes long shot, belmont stakes picks With the Wednesday morning withdrawl of pre-favorite Classic Empire, a field of 12 have drawn into the 2017 Belmont Stakes. The race goes Saturday, June 10 from Belmont Park, with an expected post time of 6:37 PM Eastern.
Belmont Odds (listed by post position):
Twisted Tom +2000
Tapwrit +750
Gormley +1200
J Boys Echo +1600
Hollywood Handsome +3300
Looking at Lee +550
Irish War Cry +300
Senior Investment +650
Meantime +1400
Multiplier +1600
Epicharis +350
Patch +2500
The removal of Classic Empire leaves us without a dominant favorite, as Irish War Cry, Epicharis and Looking at Lee all moved up and split the difference and Senior Investment and Tapwrit moved down into the single digits.
2017 Belmont Stakes Expert Sleeper Picks Sporting News. Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News is high on Lookin at Lee to put on another good performance at the Belmont.Iyer notes how Lookin at Lee has been the most consistent horse during this Triple Crown run after he finished second in the Kentucky Derby and fourth at the Preakness. Check our today's best picks on Belmont. With Numberfire you have access to the best horse racing predictions for free! Ready to elevate your bets?
The bad news is we have a Derby-lite wide open field. The good news is, that increases the value of each and every horse you have an eye on.
Here's my Card for the 2017 Belmont Stakes:
SHOW: Patch +2500
This horse is opened at 11th in the odds at a fat 18-1 after a miserable 14th place showing on a sloppy day at Churchill Downs in the Derby. Since then, he has fallen even farther to 25-1, the second-longest shot on the board.
But Horse Racing Nation has this rated as the third best horse in the field, making 25-1 a pretty enticing value. Add in the mystique around any Todd Pletcher horse, and I wouldn't be surprised if this line is narrower come post time Saturday. Patch has the terrible Kentucky Derby showing, but has been home resting since and does have a nice second place finish at the Louisiana Derby in his resume. I like the long shot value beefing up the payout.
PLACE: Tapwrit +750
I'll stick with the Todd Pletcher horse + Resting at the Preakness combo, making Tapwrit a nice value at +750. He finished sixth at the Kentucky Derby, and fifth at the Blue Grass Stakes. Those are the last two races for this horse, which earned its way into the Derby Field with an impressive win in February's Florida Derby, beating State of Honor and Wild Shot, and by finishing second in the race prior, just behind McCracken. Legendary trainer Todd Pletcher gave Tapwrit the race off, skipping the Preakness, to hopefully gear up for one more run at the Belmont. We shall see if the extra rest proved wise. Rested horse, legendary trainer, solid jockey – it's an intriguing combo.
WIN – Irish War Cry +300
My Derby value play didn't live up to the promise, but now find himself in new territory as the favorite. I'm betting the speed that made him an intriguing possibility at the Derby comes to fruition on the shorter Belmont track against a much-lesser talented field. Add in the fact that Epicharis received a painkiller for lameness in the foot yesterday, and it's hard not to take the favorite to deliver.
Good luck this weekend – and enjoy the final Triple Crown race of the season!
The field for the running of the 2017 Belmont Stakes(G1) is nearing completion and with that in mind a field of thirteen is expected to be drawn at 11:00 am on Wednesday at Rockefeller Center in Manhattan. Here is my detailed analysis of the field along with Brian Zipse's morning line. Also remember to watch this week's edition of HorseCenter where Brian and I will give wagering suggestions for the Belmont and talk about the spectacular undercard.
SCR Classic Empire [8-5] - Pioneerof the Nile – Casse - 9: 5-1-1 - $2,520,220] Classic Empire gets a checkmark in many important boxes – leading money winner, top speed figures, ideal running style, best overall Triple Crown performances, and this absolutely makes him the horse to beat. However, history is not on his side. When you look beyond American Pharoah, the recent history of losing favorites and the inability of horses to win the Belmont after they have run in the Derby and Preakness are major negative factors. The one to beat, but this is a big challenge. SCRATCHED due to hoof abscess.
Epicharis (JPN) [8-1] - Gold Allure - Hagiwara – 5: 4-1-0 - $920,285] Epicharis, who was the leader of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby and who opted not to run at Churchill Downs on the First Saturday in May, now comes to the Belmont Stakes chasing a $1,000,000 bonus should he win the Test of the Champion. This year's race will mark the very first time that a Triple Crown race will be simulcast to Japan. What could be a very large amount of money will be wagered into a separate pool from our North American betting. Last year, the Japanese bet more than $40 million on the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe.
In 2016 there were only 15 graded stakes races on the dirt at all of the tracks in Japan. At Tokyo Racecourse, where Epicharis won two of his races, there is just one grade one stake and three grade threes on the dirt. The track record for one mile at Tokyo is 1:34. In comparison, Epicharis' most recent victory came at Tokyo in the ungraded Hyacinth Stakes in a time of 1:37-4 for the mile distance. All of the winning times in his races have been far slower than what is expected from dirt horses in America and this is where my concern about Epicharis begins. I believe that he is facing a significant step up in class in the Belmont Stakes. In addition, Epicharis will be the first American starter for Hagiwara, who trains 55 horses in Japan.
Make no mistake about it, the presence of Epicharis gives the race a lot of interesting angles and enlarges the Triple Crown audience significantly and I am in favor of that. Making a significant step up in class.
Gormley[15-1] - Malibu Moon – Shirreffs – 7: 4-0-0 - $920,000] Still listed in the possible category for the race, trainer John Shirreffs will wait until the last minute to decide if he is coming east. Since his victory in the Sham in January, his speed figures have declined every race and that certainly is not the sign of a horse that is ready to go a mile and a half. His last two figures, including his win in the Santa Anita Derby do not make him competitive in this race. At best, Gormley is a hit or miss horse and it would be tough to expect the Belmont Stakes to be a race in which he returns to top form. [NOTE: Gormley is now committed to run in the Belmont.] Inconsistent at best.
Hollywood Handsome[40-1] - Tapizar – Stewart – 9: 2-0-3 - $123,430] Initially Hollywood Handsome was on the list of Belmont runners, but trainer Dallas Stewart pulled him to wait for the Ohio Derby. It seems that the connections have had a change of heart in the past few days.
'I think a lot of the colt, and I think he's going to like the distance. I think the mile and a half will be no problem,' said Stewart. I think we've got a good shot. Just the distance, I think, is going to be right up our alley.'
Stewart has a history of bringing longshots to Triple Crown races and then hitting the board, that alone means that this son of Tapizar deserves a second look. He has only two wins to his credit both of them came this year with an allowance at Churchill Downs in his most recent race. Two stakes tries on the Derby Trail yielded a fifth and fourth place finish. Needs the Dallas Stewart magic.
Irish War Cry[5-1] - Curlin – Motion – 6: 4-0-0 - $699,460] This son of Curlin has the resume to win the Belmont Stakes. His best races have been high quality performances and he has the potential to get out with the pace setters and be right there from start to finish.
'I think sometimes we overthink these things a little bit. Right after the Derby, I was just so discouraged that I didn't even want to think about another Triple Crown race,' Motion said. 'Watching him train and seeing how well he's doing being back at Fair Hill and then seeing the result of the Preakness, obviously he's run well with those horses before. It made me think more about it. It's a Classic, it only comes around once in a horse's lifetime and I think he deserves another chance.'
Draw a line through the Derby, look at his best speed figures, and he is a dangerous horse. A threat to win.
J Boys Echo[30-1] - Mineshaft – Romans – 7: 2-1-1 - $349,600] The same thing can be said about J Boys Echo that was said about others in the Belmont, that on his best day he is good enough to win the race. This Dale Romans colt did no running in the Derby and very little in the Blue Grass after bad starts in each. However, a repeat of his performance in the Gotham over the Preakness winner, Cloud Computing, makes him a threat in the Belmont. He will need to stay nearer to the early pace and not become a deep closer. Can he find his Gotham performance again?
Lookin At Lee[8-1] - Lookin At Lucky – Asmussen – 11: 2-3-2 - $942,795] I have nothing but respect for Lookin At Lee. He never runs a bad race and always comes running at the end. Steve Asmussen is making a rider change to try and stay closer to the early pace, otherwise he could get hopelessly far behind in the Belmont. It has been a long campaign with three races on the Derby trail and the first two stops in Triple Crown. Not this time.
Meantime[30-1] - Shackleford – Lynch – 4: 1-2-1 - $83,740] This lightly raced son of Shackleford has hit the board in all four of his starts with the last two coming on wet tracks. His races are improving and his recent second in the Peter Pan behind the talented, Timeline, was his best yet. The big Belmont field is going to be a very tough challenge for him. Expect him to have an impact on the early pace of the race. Too much distance and too many good horses.
Multiplier[30-1] - The Factor – Walsh – 5: 2-1-1 - $187,310] Multiplier is a horse who has improved throughout his career and really has never run a bad race. Math fans, like myself, certainly appreciate his name. His last two speed figures have been as good as many of the second-tier horses in this race. Is it possible that Multiplier could improve off of his less than optimal trip in the Preakness? He will need to stay closer rather than farther behind going the twelve furlongs because there are probably better deep closers than him. Chance for continued improvement.
Patch[20-1] - Union Rags – Pletcher – 4: 1-2-0 - $230,020] The smaller field and a better post-position draw will improve the chances of the one-eyed horse that captivated the Kentucky Derby Crowd. Patch is by Union Rags, who won the 2012 Belmont after running in the Derby and skipping the Preakness. Can Union Rags join the other 14 Belmont winners who went on to sire a Belmont Winner?
Patch had very little chance in the Derby after breaking from the far outside and getting jostled around early. His second place in the Louisiana Derby was promising, but he will have to improve on that even if the performance at Churchill Downs is dismissed. Trainer Todd Pletcher does well when his runners skip the Preakness while aiming for the Belmont. Improvement expected.
Senior Investment[15-1] - Discreetly Mine – McPeek - 9: 3-0-2 - $372,080] Senior Investment is one of the most interesting horses in the field. The Kenny McPeek runner has shown improvement in every one of his 2017 races. He made a big closing run to win the Lexington, late on the Derby Trail, but that performance was pretty much dismissed because of the weak field. He backed that win up with his third-place finish in the Preakness at 31-1 that earned a speed figure on par with many of the Belmont contenders. Can this Kenny McPeek runner make another step-up to be a threat to win the race? He is another horse that needs to be closer to the early pace than in the Preakness. Trifecta contender, for sure.
Tapwrit[6-1] - Tapit – Pletcher – 7: 3-1-0 - $343,902] Tapwrit is another horse that can contend for the Belmont win if he can run his best race. His last two starts were filled with trouble. A rough trip from the 16 hole in the Derby ended with a respectable sixth place finish. In the Blue Grass he broke very badly and lost all chance. His two Derby preps in Tampa flashed his talent. The Pletcher Derby to Belmont angle is in full force with this son of Tapit. The 27-1 odds from the Derby will be long gone on his home track in New York and he is likely to offer very little value to win bettors. A major contender for the win.
Twisted Tom[20-1] - Creative Cause – Chad Brown – 6: 4-0-0 - $209,040] New York-bred Twisted Tom has won three races in a row and has shown improvement in all of them, but has not posted a speed figure that fits with most of this field. He will need some of the Chad Brown magic that has been filling winning circles around the country in 2017. Brown is winning at this Belmont meeting at a 33% clip while finishing in the money at 62%. Another improvement will be needed.
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